Global Gaming Powerhouse, Yet Valuation Seems Full; TP to €13.1
28 Apr 2026 00:00:39 ET
CITI’S TAKE
We update our model following the completion of the OPAP-Allwyn combination, which dramatically changed the narrative for OPAP from a highly predictable single market leader offering LSD growth/~DD dividend yield, into Allwyn, a more complex global entity with stronger growth prospects, but higher leverage, lower DPS and more risks across its numerous markets. Our 2026-27e adj. EPS reduced by 33% driving TP cut to €13.1 from €19.1. Allwyn trades at c.9x 2026e EV/Adj.EBITDA or c.11x EV/EBITDA ex adjustments, which we think is fair given growth/risk profile, and we believe the execution as a newly merged entity should be proved before turning more positive. Keep Neutral.
A leading gaming company — The combination completed in March 2026 has transformed OPAP, that had 100% exposure to Greece and Cyprus, into Allwyn, a global gaming company operating in multiple markets, such as Continental Europe, UK, USA, Brazil (via Betano). Allwyn has a well-diversified product mix (c.40% lottery, c.20% sports betting, c.25% Gaming, and c.15% Daily Fantasy Sports) and a high share of exclusive games (c.57%). On the flip side, the deal resulted in a more complicated structure with multiple equity investments (e.g. Betano, Italy) and higher regulatory and competitive risks across multiple markets (e.g. US, LatAm).
Higher growth prospects, but also higher leverage/risks — We see Allwyn delivering c.13% EBITDA CAGR in 2025-28e vs. low-single-digits OPAP pre-deal, primarily driven by Allwyn’s expansion in the US via PrizePicks, growth of the online platform Betano, and recovery of investments into UK National Lottery. At the same time, Allwyn has higher leverage: we expect NetDebt/Adj. EBITDA leverage to stay at >3x in 2026-27e vs. ~0.2x for OPAP, limiting DPS to €1.0 going forward (c.7% yield) with potential minority shareholder dilution from the scrip option. Considering recent cut the medium-term guidance to HSD topline growth/high30s EBITDA margin vs. low DD growth /40%+ margin provided in Nov-25, we are mindful of risks related to macro, regulation and execution in 2026 and in the medium-term.
Valuations seems full — Incorporating the combination, Allwyn is trading at 9.2x 2026e adj. EBITDA or c.11x excluding adjustments (amounted to c.17%/15% of Adj. EBITDA in 2025/26e), in line with peers, i.e. Flutter/LTMC (consensus) at 9.7x/9.3x. We value Allwyn on 2027e SOTP applying 9x EV/Adj. EBITDA to PrizePicks, 10x to Betano, 7.5x to others; our TP implies ‘27e c.8x EV/Adj.EBITDA.
