2026 EBITDA guidance at €1.0-1.15 billion reflects full normalization; medium term growth drivers intact
CITI’S TAKE
Metlen has released its 2026 EBITDA guidance expected to be in the range of €1.0-1.15 billion. The guidance range is largely in line with the VA consensus at €1.075 billion, while we believe that rising aluminium prices could be a source of upside towards the latter part of the year. The guidance range reflects a fully normalized EBITDA for 2026 with the one-off negative effect from EPC business behind, in our view. The qualitative commentary was around disciplined execution in its core metals and energy businesses, while advancing strategic opportunities in circular metals and defence should underpin the full year guidance. We see the 2026 VA consensus moving towards upper end of the guidance range, while ’27-28 should see progress towards its medium- term guidance of €2 billion EBITDA. We remain Buyers of the stock with unchanged PT at €52.
Steady start to the year in Q1’26 should take 2026 to €1.15 billion EBITDA — Metlen’s core business of metal and energy contributes c90% to the group EBITDA, while EPC is small at the group level. However, with disproportionate headwinds from EPC business in 2025 behind, the management reiterated its focus on disciplined execution in the core businesses. We see the aluminium, power generation and renewable businesses delivering steady operational performance in 2026, which together with positive pricing could help the company deliver a clean EBITDA towards the upper end of its guidance range.
Tailwinds for metal business going into 2027 — Aluminium prices and physical premiums have strengthened due to the ongoing supply issues in the Middle East. We see the potential for Metlan’s aluminium EBITDA to increase in 2026, while forward selling would mean the upside could be better realized in 2027. We expect the aluminium business EBITDA at €450 million in 2027, up c40% vs 2025, while alumina/gallium expansion should help further increase EBITDA in 2028.
Growth catalysts ahead — The company had earlier announced about €118 million funding support towards alumina/gallium expansion. The circular metal expansion is due to the commissioning of pilot plant in 2026, at which point, market confidence in the earnings could start to reflect in VA consensus upgrades.
