Transform and grow
We initiate coverage on CrediaBank, the fifth largest bank in Greece by total assets. Following a successful restructuring exercise and the acquisition of HSBC Malta (subject to regulatory approvals), the bank is now set to grow at a fast pace, in our view. For the period 2026E-30Eνwe forecast for the combined entity a recurring net profit CAGR of 27%, best in class among the Greek banks, on the back of high lending growth, operating efficiencies and a benign cost of risk environment. This will lead, on our numbers, to a substantial uplift in ROTE, reaching 17% in 2028E and 19% by 2030E.
Fifth banking pillar: CrediaBank has fully turned around the Greek operations with the NPE ratio below 3.0%, no Deferred Tax Credits (DTCs) and a strong capital base (pro-forma CET1 ratio of c.15.5%). In 2025 the bank announced the acquisition of a 70.03% stake in HSBC Malta, the second largest bank in Malta by assets. The acquisition of HSBC Malta is a significant milestone, and it will nearly double the total assets of the bank.
Strong loan growth in Greece, huge Malta potential: We expect the bank to re-leverage the Greek balance sheet over the next five years with a CAGR in lending of c.15% (2026E-30E) driven by the strong growth in SMEs. In our view, CrediaBank can kick start the HSBC Malta operations and grow above market averages post consolidation in 2Q27.
Price target of EUR 1.55 per share: The shares trade on the combined 2028E numbers on a P/E of 10.9x, a premium to Greek peers (7.9x), justified in our view by the 3x higher EPS growth and the excess capital. We value the shares with a Gordon Growth Formula and derive a PT of EUR 1.55/share.
