1H’26 revenue beat, EBITDA in line, Greece strength offsets US weakness, guidance upgrade in-line with consensus
30 Jul 2026 03:24:01 ET
CITI’S TAKE
2Q’26 revenue beat cons at €783mn (company compiled cons €758mn, CitiE €774mn) and EBITDA €174mn was in-line of cons of €173mn (CitiE €176mn). Resilient pricing – further strengthened in Europe and East Med.- and improved volumes across all core product lines. EBITDA margin contracted by c150bps y/y to 22.3% (vs. cons 22.9%, CitiE 22.8%), driven by higher energy cost in Southeastern Europe, and temporary import-related disruptions, an extended outage in Florida and consolidation of Keystone in the US. For 2026 Management upgrades sales guidance to HSD growth and over proportional EBITDA growth with margin expansion in 2026. We forecast +9.6% sales growth and +12.6% EBITDA growth for 2026e. (Company complied cons of 7.5% sales growth and 12.3% EBITDA growth for 2026e).
Greece strength offsets US weakness – 2Q’26 margin decline was mostly due to USA (-260bps), Southeastern Europe (-267bps) and Eastern Med (-42bps) which were partially offset the margin expansion in Greece and WE (+234bps).
Strong balance sheet – Net debt increased significantly to €877mn (ND/EBITDA at 1.4x) vs €214mn (and 0.4x) at the end of FY25 following the completion of €700m investments in three strategic acquisitions. Capex €160mn in the 1H, largely supporting strategic growth and efficiency-enhancement projects. The group launched A new €20mn buyback, ending Mar’27, doubling the Company’s repurchase capacity.
2026 outlook – In US, Growth should remain supported by infrastructure, manufacturing, energy and data-center investments, partly offsetting continued weakness in residential construction. In Greece, Construction demand is expected to stay robust, driven by infrastructure projects, tourism-related developments, logistics, data centers and residential renovation activity. In South-eastern Europe, Outlook remains constructive, supported by infrastructure spending, residential construction and tourism-related development despite macro headwinds. In Eastern Mediterranean, Demand should remain resilient, underpinned by infrastructure, energy and logistics projects in Egypt and renovation, urban renewal and public-investment activity in Türkiye. Recently completed acquisitions are expected to provide additional growth to both revenues and profitability. Capex is expected to range between €300-350mn. For 2026 Management upgrades sales guidance to HSD growth and over proportional EBITDA growth with margin expansion in 2026. We forecast +9.6% sales growth and +12.6% EBITDA growth for 2026e. (Company complied cons of 7.5% sales growth and 12.3% EBITDA growth for 2026e).
Implications – The strong 1H26 revenue outperformance and upgraded FY26 outlook reinforce the company’s positive volume and pricing momentum across key markets. However, as the revised guidance is broadly consistent with current consensus expectations, the results are likely to support existing forecasts rather than drive a material round of earnings upgrades.
ValuationWe apply a DCF-based sum-of-the-parts valuation methodology as it enables us to capture cash flows across the cycle. We arrive at an enterprise value of EUR 79.2/share (using a WACC of 8.2%, terminal growth of 1%). From this EV, we net off EUR9.2/share (EUR 8.4/share for net debt and EUR0.8/share for pensions and minorities) to arrive at our target price of EUR 70/share.
Risks Key risks to our forecasts and target price include: Political challenges in Egypt, whic and a slowdown in the US construction recovery. Titan’s net debt and balance sheet risks could pose a risk if profitability were to deteriorate.h accounts for a significant amount of Titan’s group sales. We also see risks around further currency depreciation and price pressure in Egypt,
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