Investment Thesis
We remain confident regarding the CocaColla Hellenic Bottling Company investment case and we are increasing our target price to €62.00 to account for the increased margins the group is delivering that this year are supported by solid volume growth in all geographies. This is a 26% upward revision from our October’s 2026 report. The group is over-delivering and is positioned to accelerate both revenues and earnings as the acquisition of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA) progresses. During the latest 1H26 conference call, the management reaffirmed the transaction’s momentum, noting that antitrust clearances have been secured in the majority of jurisdictions and guiding for completion by year-end. Consequently, we see no basis to continue assuming a potential one-year delay, as we had done previously. Instead, we keep incorporating all the positive aspects of the CCBA deal, deployed in our previous report. The group’s cash generation and balance sheet is strong enough to digest the acquisition with no material change to the group’s leverage. Net Debt to EBITDA is expected to stay below the x2.0 threshold and decline back to x1.07 by 2028. Valuation
The firm is valued at €62 per share through a DCF exercise with the same applied weighted average cost of capital of 7.19%. This time, we have increased the assumed perpetual growth to 1,5% to account for the improved demographics of the expanded footprint. Annual Capex assumption is unchanged within the guided range of 6.5% to 7.5% of revenue. EBIT margin is expected to stay at its current high level, contrary to the 20 to 40bps annual improvement that the management is suggesting
