How did results compare vs. expectations?
From the 1H report, we calculate GEK TERNA reported 2Q26 revenues of €1,109m (company cons. €1,074m, UBSe €1,066m) with adj. EBITDA of €190m (company cons. €185m, UBSe €195m). On the positive side: the company beat EBITDA expectations by 3%, primarily driven by contracting (lower multiple) with margins delivering significantly above expectations. On the negative side: we calculate a BtB of 0.4x and 4% q/q backlog decline. Net income came in at €49m (company cons. €42m, 1H25 €47m) whilst we calculate 1H26 FCF of €44m (1H25 €82m) with 1H26 capex of €107m (1H25 €43m). Non project finance net debt/(cash) came in at -€280m (1H25 -€4m, 1Q26 €403m).
Whilst some investors may be concerned about the BtB/backlog growth, we believe this largely reflects the lumpiness associated with project awards/execution. With this in mind, we view today’s 3% beat as a slight positive and await further clarity on the Construction trends on the conference call taking place at 1pm UK time tomorrow.
What were the most noteworthy areas of results?
Concessions (consolidated share ~59% SoTP): 2Q26 concessions revenue came in at €184m (company cons. €183m, UBSe €186m) with adj. EBITDA of €117m (company cons. €118m, UBSe €124m) implying margins of 63% (company cons. 64%, UBSe 67%, 2Q25 65%). In a context in which 1H traffic for main assets was already disclosed [link], we note reporting as follows:
Attiki Odos 2Q26 revenues of €64m (UBSe €63m) with EBITDA of €51m (UBSe €50m) implying margins of 79% (UBSe 79%). The company notes “positive momentum” for 3Q26 with traffic growing in July and August at “a similar pace to previous months.”
Egnatia Odos 2Q26 revenues of €43m (UBSe €44m) with EBITDA of €22m (UBSe €24m) implying margins of 51% (UBSe 55%).
Nea/Kentriki Odos 2Q26 revenues of €64m (UBSe €66m) with EBITDA of €44m (UBSe €45m) implying margins of 69% (UBSe 68%).
Contracting (~23% SoTP): 2Q26 revenues of €529m (company cons. €504m, UBSe €526m) with adj. EBITDA of €67m (company cons. €57m, UBSe €47m) implying margins of 12.8% (company cons. 11.3%, UBSe 9.0%). The company cites “quality of project mix and execution focus/capacity” as driving factors. Order backlog rose 10% y/y and decreased 4% q/q to €6.9bn. We calculate an implied order intake of €0.2bn with a BtB of 0.4x.
Has the company’s outlook/guidance changed?
Traditionally no guidance is provided. Excluding Conventional Energy which we anticipate to be deconsolidated in 2H26, we forecast FY26 adj. EBITDA of €659m (VA cons. €670m) with Concessions adj. EBITDA of €483m (VA cons. €490m) and Contracting adj. EBITDA of €194m (VA cons. €196m). Valuation: Buy, SoTP derived PT €55/sh
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