Citi is positive on Greek bank stocks, with Buy ratings on Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Piraeus and price targets of €5.30, €5.10 and €11.40, respectively. Its latest third-quarter 2026 reviews highlight stronger net interest income, healthy loan growth and disciplined costs.
Alpha Bank and Eurobank beat consensus profit forecasts by 15% and 6%, respectively, leading Citi to anticipate modest earnings upgrades. Piraeus delivered a more mixed quarter, with profit 11% below consensus as higher provisions and weaker fee and trading income offset strong net interest income. Nevertheless, Citi highlights its commercial momentum and improving asset quality.
Piraeus Bank SA / Buy /target price €11.40
3Q26 result: -11% miss driven by weak trading, provisions & fees despite strong NII
CITI’S TAKE
Piraeus reported 3Q26 net profit of €275m (-18% qoq, +5% yoy), or 11% below company-collected consensus and 3% below Citi forecasts. Reported ROTE was c13.5%, down from 16.7% in 2Q26. The miss was driven primarily by higher-than-expected provisions, weaker fee income and negative trading income, despite another strong quarter for NII supported by loan growth and higher-for-longer interest rates. Operating expenses were well controlled and asset quality continued to improve. Loan growth remained robust and management maintained confidence in achieving FY26 targets while highlighting upside to NII generation. Overall, we view the quarter as mixed, with strong commercial momentum and balance sheet trends offset by weaker earnings delivery.
PPOP -1% vs. consensus — Pre-provision operating profit in 3Q26 amounted to €499m or -8% qoq, +14% yoy, 1% below consensus but 3% above Citi forecasts. Total revenues declined 7% qoq but increased 13% yoy, broadly matching expectations. NII was the key positive surprise increasing 7% qoq, 15% yoy, and beating both consensus and Citi estimates by around 3%, supported by rate tailwinds, strong loan growth and spread discipline. Fee income was weaker-than-expected, declining 14% qoq although still increasing 33% yoy. Fees were 2% below consensus. Ethniki Insurance contributed €36m to fees in the quarter and €102m year-to-date, putting the bank on track to exceed its c€110m FY26 target. Trading and other income were weak reflecting market volatility and higher bond yields. Operating expenses declined 5% qoq, outperforming expectations and coming in 4% below both consensus and Citi estimates.
Asset quality resilient — The NPE ratio declined to 2.0% from 2.2% in 2Q26, supported by portfolio sales and clean-up initiatives. The stock of NPEs fell to €927m from €1.0bn in the previous quarter. NPE coverage declined to 58% from 67%, largely reflecting the sale of a highly covered NPE portfolio rather than underlying deterioration in asset quality. Total provisions increased to €90m, up from €65m in 2Q26 and €68m in 3Q25, and were 18% above consensus and 14% above Citi forecasts. Organic cost of risk increased to 80bp from 59bp in 2Q26, primarily reflecting approximately €50m of impairment charges related to the Parthenon portfolio classified as held-for-sale. Despite the quarterly increase, year-to-date organic cost of risk remains 57bp, broadly in line with management’s FY26 target of c60bp. Negative other impairment & associates of €39m (REO and other asset revaluations) was also a significant drag on the result this quarter.
Loans, funding, capital — Performing loans increased 1% qoq and 8% yoy, while net credit expansion reached €2.2bn year-to-date. Deposits increased 1% qoq and 9% yoy to €69.2bn, while assets under management rose 19% yoy to €16.9bn, supported by €1.3bn of net inflows during 9M26. Liquidity remains exceptionally strong, with a LCR of 212% and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 65%. The CET1 ratio increased modestly to 12.9% from 12.8% in 2Q26 despite absorbing a 57% payout accrual, loan growth and accelerated DTC amortisation. Management reiterated confidence that CET1 will achieve its >13% FY26 target. The bank indicated it will pay an interim dividend of €124m in December.
Outlook — Management reiterated its FY26 guidance, including EPS of c€0.9, normalized ROTE of c15%, cost-to-income below 35%, organic cost of risk of c60bp and CET1 above 13%. Management indicated upside to its €2.0bn NII target and fee income (including Ethniki) targets given favourable rates, strong loan growth and continued momentum in insurance and wealth management. The bank upgraded its 2027 aspirations, now targeting NIM above 2.4%, ROTE above 15%, EPS growth of c10% and CET1 >13.5%.
Implications — A softer-than-expected quarter. While core operating trends remain encouraging, with strong NII growth, robust loan expansion, improving asset quality and better-than-expected cost control, earnings missed both consensus and Citi forecasts due to higher provisions, weaker fee momentum and negative trading income. We think the result may lead to some modest reduction in consensus estimates. We note that Bloomberg consensus FY26 EPS stands at €0.98 vs. management’s reiterated target of c€0.90.
Valuation
We use a warranted equity valuation model approach to value Piraeus. Our model assumes a sustainable ROTE of 16.1%, CoE of 11.2% and growth rate of 3% in 2030, which we assume are sustainable. This leads us to value the bank at 1.61x 2030 forecast TBVPS, which we discount back to 12 months today, including discounted expected dividends, arriving at a target price of €11.40, excluding 12-month expected dividend per share of €0.54.
Risks
A number of risks could prevent the shares from achieving or exceeding our target price. These include:
(1) Worse-than-expected revenue development trends, driven by margins, volume trends, and the ability to impose fees on clients;
(2) Inabililty to achieve planned cost savings from internal efficiency measures and reduction in NPEs;
(3) Higher-than-expected provisions due to macro uncertainties and/or new regulatory requirements;
(4) Execution risk associated with planned NPE reduction; and
(5) Potential negative impact of political or regulatory initiatives.
(6) Better or worse execution of M&A and/or development of their digital bank, Snappi.
(7) A more prolonged conflict in the Middle East than anticipated with negative implications for energy prices, inflation, and business confidence.
Citigroup/Alpha Bank / Buy/ Target price €5.30
3Q26: 15% beat versus consensus as NII momentum more than offsets higher CoR
CITI’S TAKE
Alpha Bank’s reported 3Q26 net profit of €269m (-15% qoq, +46% yoy) came in 15% higher than consensus and Citi forecasts, while underlying profit reached €283m (+3% qoq, +31% yoy). The result was primarily driven by stronger-than-expected NII performance (+6% versus both consensus and Citi), continued solid loan growth and good cost discipline, which more than offset a modest increase in credit costs. Revenue beat consensus by 2% and Citi by 3%, while PPOP exceeded expectations by 5% versus consensus and 7% versus Citi. Asset quality was broadly stable, although the NPE ratio edged up to 3.8% and CoR increased to 42bp. The combination of stronger core revenues, positive operating leverage and better capital generation should support modest upgrades to consensus earnings forecasts.
+5% PPOP beat driven by NII and lower costs — Pre-provision operating profit in 3Q26 increased +4% qoq and +30% yoy to €402m, exceeding company-collected consensus by +5% and Citi estimates by +7%. The beat was primarily driven by stronger-than-expected NII, which rose +8% qoq and +17% yoy to €472m, exceeding both consensus and Citi by +6%. Loan growth, securities income and resilient customer spreads more than offset deposit repricing pressures. Fee income declined -16% qoq following the absence of the €39.6m PRODEA dividend recognised in 2Q26 but still exceeded consensus by +2% and Citi by +8%. Excluding the dividend effect, underlying fees increased +6% qoq. Trading and other income remained weak at €5m. Operating expenses declined -4% qoq and were 3-4% below consensus and Citi estimates, driving positive operating leverage. The cost/income ratio improved to 36.4% from 38.2% in 2Q26, while NIM on avg. assets expanded 11bp qoq to 2.28%.
Asset quality slightly weaker — The NPE ratio increased 20bp qoq to 3.8%, while NPE coverage declined to 52% from 55% in 2Q26. The increase in NPE ratio was attributed to a single European corporate syndication that has been restructured and further re-profiling of mortgages. Risk cost increased to 42bp from 39bp in the previous quarter. While impairment charges of €49m were up +11% qoq, they were -1% vs. consensus expectations and -4% vs. Citi. While credit metrics softened modestly, management indicated no material deterioration in underlying borrower behaviour, with asset quality remaining broadly consistent with medium-term objectives.
Loan growth, funding and capital remain supportive — Loans increased +1% qoq and +11% yoy to €46.3bn, supported by continued corporate lending growth and a healthy disbursement pipeline. Deposits grew +3% qoq and +13% yoy to €59.9bn, broadly matching asset growth and supporting the bank’s strong liquidity position. The fully-loaded CET1 ratio increased to 14.1% from 14% in 2Q26 or in-line with Citi forecasts. Tangible book value increased +2% qoq and +4% yoy; the bank continued to accrue for a 55% payout ratio and indicated that it would pay an interim dividend of €124m in December.
Outlook — Management reiterated confidence in delivering its strategic and financial objectives and highlighted continued momentum in loans, fees and capital generation. No formal guidance changes were announced ahead of the upcoming Investor Day.
Implications — Strong NII momentum, positive operating leverage and better-than-expected capital generation are likely to support modest upward revisions to consensus earnings and capital return expectations. The result reinforces the investment case centred on sustainable double-digit returns, excess capital generation and attractive shareholder distributions.
Valuation
We use a Warranted Equity Valuation (WEV) approach adjusted for excess capital to value Alpha Bank. Our model assumes a terminal excess capital adjusted (assumes a required 14% CET1) RoTE of 13.2%, a CoE of 10.4%, and 4% growth rate. This drives our TP of €5.30.
Risks
A number of risks could prevent Alpha’s share price from achieving our target price:
(1) Better- or worse-than-expected revenue development trends, driven by margins, interest rates, volume trends, ability to impose fees to clients, and changes to the competitive environment.
(2) Inability to achieve planned cost savings from internal efficiency measures and reduction in NPE related management costs.
(3) Higher/Lower provisions due depending on performance of the economy.
(4) Unexpected regulatory initiatives that impact earnings.
(5) Better or worse execution of recently announced M&A.
If the impact on the company from any of these factors differs from our base case expectations, the stock could have difficulty achieving our target price or could increase more than we expect.
Citigroup/Eurobank /Buy/ Target price of €5.10
3Q26 results: +6% beat driven by stronger NII, trading income, and associates
CITI’S TAKE
Eurobank reported 3Q26 net profit of €423m, up +4% qoq, +24% yoy, and +6% above company-collected consensus and +10% above Citi forecasts. Adjusted net profit rose to €433m, up +2% qoq and +25% yoy, while reported RoTE remained strong at 18.0%. The earnings beat was driven by stronger-than-expected net interest income, better trading and other income, and significantly higher income from associates. Importantly, management reiterated confidence in achieving or exceeding full-year targets, supported by strong loan growth momentum and the completed acquisition of Eurolife, which should further diversify earnings. Overall, another strong quarter.
+6% adjusted profit beat in 3Q driven by NII, trading income, and associates — Eurobank reported a net profit of €423m ( €433m before one-offs), up +4% qoq and +24% yoy, exceeding consensus by +6% and Citi by +10%. Total revenues grew +4% qoq and +14% yoy, coming in +2% above consensus and +4% above Citi estimates. The key driver was net interest income of €719m, up +5% qoq and +14% yoy, or+2% ahead of consensus as higher ECB rates, loan growth and balance sheet expansion more than offset funding cost pressure. Trading and other income of €30m remained elevated and was 54% above consensus. Associates income of €18m was particularly strong, exceeding consensus by 73%. Fees increased +3% qoq and +12% yoy, or just shy of expectations. Operating expenses were tightly controlled at €333m, broadly in line with forecasts (+0.3% qoq). NIM on average assets expanded 3bp qoq to 2.51%.
Asset quality remains solid despite lower coverage — The NPE ratio improved by a further 4bp qoq to 2.4%, continuing the trend of gradual balance sheet derisking. Loan loss provisions were €77m, broadly in line with expectations, translating into a cost of risk of 54bp versus 50bp in 2Q26. NPE coverage eased marginally to 81.9% from 82.4% in 2Q26, having already stepped down sharply earlier in the year. Management highlighted that the forthcoming implementation of the CHF conversion law could result in approximately 40bp upward pressure on the NPE ratio in 4Q26, although with no expected impact on cost of risk.
Loans, funding and capital — Net customer loans increased +2% qoq and +10% yoy to €57.9bn, supported by quarterly organic loan growth of approximately €1.1bn and year-to-date growth of €3.8bn. Corporate lending remained the primary growth driver, with business loans up +2% qoq and +13% yoy, while consumer lending also strengthened. Customer deposits rose +1% qoq and +10% yoy to €87.2bn, maintaining a comfortable loan-to-deposit ratio of 66.4%. CET1 improved to 15.5% from 15.4% in 2Q26 despite dividend accruals, although management indicated a pro forma CET1 ratio of 14.3% following completion of the Eurolife acquisition, reflecting an approximately 120bp capital impact.
Implications — Another strong quarter with earnings, revenues, and profitability all ahead of expectations. Strong loan growth, resilient margins, and continued fee momentum provide confidence in management’s ability to meet or exceed full-year targets. While the Eurolife acquisition reduces capital ratios, it should enhance earnings diversification and support medium-term growth in insurance and wealth management (Eurolife fee income is expected at c €20-22m in 4Q26 and c€100m in FY27 onwards). We would expect modest upward revisions to consensus earnings following today’s release.
Valuation
We use a Warranted Equity Valuation (WEV) approach to valuing Eurobank adjusted for excess equity assuming a CET1 of 14% is adequate longer term. Our model assumes a sustainable excess equity adjusted ROTE of 17.2%, a COE of 11% and a growth rate of 3%. This drives our target price of €5.10. We note our target price excludes 12-month forecast DPS of €0.21.
Risks
A number of risks could prevent Eurobank’s share price from achieving our target price:
(1) Better- or worse-than-expected revenue development trends, driven by margins, interest rate developments, volume trends, ability to impose fees to clients, changes to the competitive environment as well as domestic and global macro conditions.
(2) Inability to achieve planned cost savings from internal efficiency measures and reduction in NPE related management costs.
(3) Higher/Lower provisions due depending on performance of the economy.
(4) Unexpected regulatory initiatives that impact earnings.
(5) Better or worse execution of recent M&A.
If the impact on the company from any of these factors differs from our base case expectations, the stock could have difficulty achieving our target price or could increase more than we expect.
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