Model update post 2Q26, TP raised to EUR13.6
22 Jun 2026 10:35:37 ET
CITI’S TAKE
Updating estimates following 1Q26 results, which were slightly ahead of our expectations (~2% beat on topline and adj. EBITDA). On a positive side, Allwyn reported strong revenue acceleration in Betano (36.8% stake) to +27%YoY vs. +7% in 2H25; core Continental Europe segment remained steady (+5%YoY reported, +7% LFL). At the same time, UK did not show signs of improvement yet (revenues +3%YoY, EBITDA down YoY), while PrizePicks slowed materially in 1Q26 (+5%cFX vs. >30% growth in 2025), though Allwyn has been flagging a rising contribution of prediction markets for PrizePicks, which could pick up further during 2026 FIFA World Cup. Net Debt expectedly increased (3.2x ex adjustments), Allwyn reiterated EUR0.2 DPS in 2H26 and announced EUR150mn buyback. Our EPS raised by ~2% in 2026-27e, TP raised to EUR13.6 on estimate changes (higher earnings assumption for Betano). Shares trade on 8.3x ’27e Adj. EBITDA. We remain Neutral.
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