1Q26: +17% beat driven by better trading, NII, & lower tax; insurance deal signed
CITI’S TAKE
NBG reported a 1Q26 net profit before one-offs of €344m (-10% yoy, +23% qoq) or +17% above company collected average consensus and +15% above Citi forecast. ROTE before one-offs amounted to 16.9%. Reported profits including one-offs was a lower €272m (-10% yoy, -1% qoq, 13.4% ROTE) driven by €60m Voluntary Exit Scheme (VES) costs. The underlying beat was driven by better-than-expected trading & other income and net interest income (NII) and lower tax. The bank also announced that it is poised to collaborate in insurance with Allianz. A good start of the year.
+9% PPOP beat driven by better trading & NII — Pre-provision operating profit (-10% yoy, +10% qoq) beat consensus by +9% driven by better trading & other income of €61m in the quarter vs. a consensus estimate of €25m and better NII (-1%yoy, +2% qoq, +1% vs. consensus). Fee income grew+8% yoy driven by strong mutual fund fees and lending related fees, but fell -14% qoq off a strong 4Q25 base; fees came in -3% vs. consensus. Recurring OPEX (+8% yoy, -7% qoq) came in-line with consensus expectations.
Benign credit quality dynamics — There was no material NPE inflow in the quarter and the NPE ratio was unchanged over the quarter at 2.4% while provision coverage improved to 107% up from 105.6% at end Dec-25. Risk cost was largely unchanged over the quarter at 39bp.
Loans, funding, capital — Loans (net) grew +11% yoy, +2% qoq. Group performing loans grew +12% yoy led by +16% yoy growth in Greek corporate loans while Greek retail loans grew +4% yoy.
Insurance partnership — The bank announced that it has signed an MoU with Allianz to buy 30% of their Greek insurance business and enter into a 10 year exclusive distribution agreement. The transaction is expected to have a c20bp impact on CET1, lead to 4x growth in insurance fees and be c+4% earnings accretive and >50bp ROTE accretive. We view this positively and if executed well suggests upside to consensus fee and earnings forecasts.
Implications —
A strong start to the year. While the beat was largely driven by trading, better fees offset slightly soft fees and we expect the market to also cheer the insurance partnership. We remain Buyers.
